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Home Prices Didn’t Crash After All

Oops! Home Prices Didn’t Crash After All

During the fourth quarter of last year, many housing experts predicted home prices would crash this year. Here are a few of those forecasts:

Jeremy Siegel, Russell E. Palmer Professor Emeritus of Finance at the Wharton School of Business:

“I expect housing prices fall 10% to 15%, and the housing prices are accelerating on the downside.”

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics:

“Buckle in. Assuming rates remain near their current 6.5% and the economy skirts recession, then national house prices will fall almost 10% peak-to-trough. Most of those declines will happen sooner rather than later. And house prices will fall 20% if there is a typical recession.”

Goldman Sachs

“Housing is already cooling in the U.S., according to July data that was reported last week. As interest rates climb steadily higher, Goldman Sachs Research’s G-10 home price model suggests home prices will decline by around 5% to 10% from the peak in the U.S. . . . Economists at Goldman Sachs Research say there are risks that housing markets could decline more than their model suggests.”

The Bad News: It Rattled Consumer Confidence

These forecasts put doubt in the minds of many consumers about the strength of the residential real estate market. Evidence of this can be seen in the December Consumer Confidence Survey from Fannie Mae. It showed a larger percentage of Americans believed home prices would fall over the next 12 months than in any other December in the survey’s history (see graph below). That caused people to hesitate about their homebuying or selling plans as we entered the new year.

The Good News: Home Prices Never Crashed

However, home prices didn’t come crashing down and seem to be already rebounding from the minimal depreciation experienced over the last several months. 

In a report just released, Goldman Sachs explained:

“The global housing market seems to be stabilizing faster than expected despite months of rising mortgage rates, according to Goldman Sachs Research. House prices are defying expectations and are rising in major economies such as the U.S.,. . . ”

Those claims from Goldman Sachs were verified by the release last week of two indexes on home prices: Case-Shiller and the FHFA. Here are the numbers each reported:

Home values seem to have turned the corner and are headed back up.

Bottom Line

When significant home price depreciation forecasts were made last fall, they were made with megaphones. Mass media outlets, industry newspapers, and podcasts broadcasted the news of an eminent price crash.

Now, forecasters say the worst is over, and it wasn’t near as bad as they initially projected. However, they are whispering the news instead of using megaphones. As real estate professionals, it is our responsibility – some may say duty – to correct this narrative in the minds of the American consumer.

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Jason Tumlinson

About Me BCS LISTING & BUYER SPECIALIST Specialties: Buyer's Agent, Listing Agent, Relocation BCS DREAM HOMES WHY CHOOSE JASON AS YOUR AGENT? (CALL OR TEXT 979-255-6999) As an agent who's an expert in this local area, I bring a wealth of knowledge and expertise about buying and selling real estate here. It's not the same everywhere, so you need someone you can trust for up-to-date information. I am eager to serve you. Here are some of the things I can do for you: Find Your Next Home You need someone who knows this area inside and out! I can work with you to find the right home at the right price for you, including all the neighborhood amenities that matter - not to mention the essential criteria you have for your ideal home Sell a Home When it's time to move, you need someone who will advertise your home, show to prospective buyers, negotiate the purchase contract, arrange financing, oversee the inspections, handle all necessary paperwork and supervise the closing. I can take care of everything you need, from start to close. Consult on Home Selling Tactics Oftentimes buyers don't visualize living in your home the way you do. I can make your home attractive to its ideal audience - which can help you get top dollar. Things like staging the home, making repairs or minor improvements, or even simply painting the walls can be the difference between a home resting on the market and one that's sold fast. Please contact Jason at 979-255-6999 or email him at jasontumlinson@kw.com if interested in buying, selling or investing! Visit my website at www.bcsdreamhomes.com VLB, CMRS

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